Journal article
An Agent-based Model of the South African offshore Hake trawl Industry: Part 1 Model Description and Validation.


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Publication Details
Author list: Cooper R, Jarre A
Publisher: Elsevier
Publication year: 2017
Journal: Ecological Economics
Volume number: 142
Start page: 268
End page: 281
Total number of pages: 14
ISSN: 0921-8009

Abstract
The most valuable component in South Africa's fishing industry is its hake fishery, which targets two species, the
shallow-water (Merluccius capensis)and deep-water(M. paradoxus) Cape hakes. Modelling provides a means to
assist in understanding the dynamics of the economic system of this fishery and identify potential links to the eco-
logical system in future, which can inform management. This study develops and describes a novel agent-based
model of the South African offshore hake trawl industry, HakeSim, which captures drivers such as fuel price,
catch per unit effort, export markets, exchange rate, industrial organization and uncertainty in catches as a
proxy for environmental uncertainty. It allows identification of key drivers and their relative importance to the in-
dustry to be assessed. It has desirable and realistic sensitivities and it can successfully reproduce profitability sce-
narios for the industry under different fuel prices. Fuel prices above ZAR18.783 per litre, which could result from
increased prices or reduced subsidies, are demonstrated to push the modelled fishing companies to making losses,
which could potentially reduce employment. This modelrepresents a strategic tool for management and signifi-
cant advancements over existing bio-economic and agent-based models of fisheries



An Agent-based Model of the South African Offshore Hake Trawl Industry: Part I Model Description and Validation (PDF Download Available). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318331785_An_Agent-based_Model_of_the_South_African_Offshore_Hake_Trawl_Industry_Part_I_Model_Description_and_Validation [accessed Sep 26, 2017].


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Last updated on 2017-15-11 at 12:35