Journal article

A Bayesian Model for Detecting Changes in Purchase Probabilities over Time.

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Publication Details

Author list: Clark, A.E. Durbach, I.N. Hofmeyr J.H.

Publisher: Southern African Institute for Management Scientists, Stellenbosch University

Publication year: 2014

Journal: Management Dynamics / Bestuursdinamika: Kontemorere Navorsing

Volume number: 24

Issue number: 2

Start page: 14

End page: 25

Total number of pages: 12

ISSN: 1019-567X


A sequence of purchases may undergo sudden changes at unknown times. In this paper we assess the extent of such change by developing a multiple change-point model that assumes that there is an underlying sequence of choice probabilities that govern the observed sequence of purchases, and that this sequence of probabilities can be partitioned into contiguous blocks such that the choice probabilities are equal within blocks but different between them. We apply this model to panel data gathered over a two-year period in seven consumer goods categories. Consistent with previous research on other types of changes in purchase behaviour, we find that the majority of consumers in our panel show little change in purchase probabilities over the medium-term, but that substantive and persistent changes are indicated for a significant minority of consumers.


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Last updated on 2019-05-03 at 08:57