Journal article

IN Press: Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: a multi-species dynamic transmission model

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Publication Details

Author list: Shretta R, Silal S, Celhay O, Mercado C, Saralamba S, Maude RJ, White LJ

Publisher: F1000 Research Ltd.

Publication year: 2021

Journal: Wellcome Open Research

Volume number: 4

Issue number: 60

Start page: 1

End page: 25

Total number of pages: 25

eISSN: 2398-502X


Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events,

which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable

demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental

to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are

those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population

dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable

weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during

1993–2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated

population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate

annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance

in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables

explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate

analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction

probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5 years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile

survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower

when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival.

These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of

thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that

the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather

variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if

more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they


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Last updated on 2021-15-04 at 13:13